Stock to Flow Model

Biorąc pod uwagę wspomniane Halvingi powstał tzw. Stock to flow model.

Wykres znajdziesz na stronie: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model.

Model stock to flow pokazuje, ile lat – jeśli pozostawimy produkcję na dotychczasowym poziomie – potrzeba do osiągnięcia obecnej ilości Bitcoinów. Uzyskujemy go poprzez podzielenie obecnego zapasu Bitcoina przez jego roczną produkcję. Im wyższa liczba, tym więcej lat potrzebować będziemy, by ponownie wyprodukować tyle Bitcoinów, ile jest obecnie.

Oznacza to, że im wyższa liczba, tym Bitcoin trudniejszy do pozyskania. Zgodnie z prawem podaży, tym wyższa powinna być jego cena.

Wszak – przy innych warunkach niezmienionych – im rzadsze dobro, tym więcej ono kosztuje.

Matematycznie można to zapisać SF = stock/flow, czyli Stock to Flow = zapas/roczna produkcja. Łatwo to zrozumieć na przykładzie złota.

Obecnie dostępnych na świecie jest 185 000 ton metrycznych. Roczne wydobycie to 3 000 ton metrycznych. Gdy podstawimy
dane do wzoru uzyskujemy następujące liczby:

185 000/3 000 = ok. 62 (lat).

Aby więc ponownie wydobyć tyle złota, ile obecnie znajduje się w obiegu potrzeba aż 62 lat. W przypadku złota spodziewamy się, że liczba ta pozostanie w miarę stała w kolejnych latach. Tymczasem w przypadku Bitcoina może to ulec zmianie. Dzieje się tak, ponieważ
mamy tu do czynienia z regularnymi „halvingami”.

Halving oznacza, że co 4 lata nagroda za wydobycie nowego Bitcoina przez górników BTC maleje o połowę. Oznacza to, że spodziewana liczba wydobywanych nowych jednostek tej kryptowaluty będzie coraz mniejsza.

Po halvingu w 2020 roku stock to flow wynosi 52. Z kolei w 2024 roku wskaźnik ten wyniesie 113, przekraczając wskaźnik dla złota. Model stock to flow jest jedną z prób przewidzenia przyszłej ceny BTC. Im wyższy, tym większa szansa na wzrost kursu BTC.

Jednak nie zawsze się on sprawdza (czego przykładem jest ostatnia hossa).

Po najechaniu na wykres zobaczysz datę oraz cenę w dolarach mówiącą ile Bitcoin powinien kosztować w danym dniu – także w przyszłości. Jak widzisz cena Bitcoina podąża za tym modelem, a więc jest on bardzo miarodajny.

Na dole znajdziesz mniejszy wykres, który pokazuje czy aktualna cena realna jest poniżej tej wynikającej z modelu (kolor zielony) czy też cena jest powyżej wyceny z modelu (kolor czerwony).

W skrócie jeśli prawa część małego wykresu jest aktualnie na zielono, to Bitcoin jest niedowartościowany.

Z kolei jeśli jest na czerwono, to znaczy, że na ten dzień jest za drogi i może nas czekać korekta.

Pamiętaj, że cena wynikająca z modelu zwiększa się z dnia na dzień, a więc dzisiaj Bitcoin może być przewartościowany, ale jeśli poczekamy kilka dni, to jego cena może stać się adekwatna do tej wynikającej z modelu.

4. O co chodzi w cyklach Bitcoina?
6. Bitcoin i jego korelacje

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